Editor's Comment: At Axis of Logic we are maintaining our "wait and see" position regarding the long term results of the uprisings in Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain, Yemen and even Libya where the sickening US-led war has already entered its first stage of a "no fly zone." There is no lack for western analysts like Eric Trager who authored the following article. All seem to have a need for a rush to judgement about any of the groups in Egypt - from the true revolutionaries to the Muslim Brotherhood to the Military and members of Mubarak's Old Guard who remain in place. Motives are no doubt mixed. Some are simply caught up in their desire to become known; others sincerely believe they above all others have a corner on the truth; still others are counter revolutionaries write strategically to muddy the waters, intent on affecting the outcome of the revolutionary movement.

One might reasonably ask why we have to know in advance what's going to happen next in midst of an utterly dynamic situation where powerful forces in Egypt are battling for power. We don't have to know. But we republish Trager's article because it provides a broad picture of today's referendum in Egypt, identifies positions of some of the contenders. His negative view of the people's could be revolution is noted herewith. In that regard we remind ourselves and our readers that this young and fragile revolt continues to oppose with force - western imperialism, capitalism and foreign interference in their domestic affairs. Moreover, its worth noting that this article was published in The Atlantic, a notoriously counter-revolutionary media enterprise with a liberal face.

- Les Blough, Editor

Five weeks after Mubarak yielded his presidency to the unified masses of Tahrir Square, Egypt's could-be revolution is a deeply divided mess

CAIRO, Egypt -- On a traffic island-based podium in Tahrir Square, an activist concluded his call for Egyptians to vote down tomorrow's referendum on proposed constitutional amendments, and music started playing. But barely one-hundred feet away on the same traffic island, another activist standing on another podium was still in the middle of his speech, similarly railing against the proposed constitutional amendments. And when his speech ended, music -- different music -- started playing. Meanwhile, a few hundred feet away, a speaker on a third podium was urging people to vote "no," competing with the ugly cacophony of two dissonant songs playing in the not-so-background. As for the speaker on the fourth podium, well, it was a bit hard to hear him and few people bothered listening anyway.

Five weeks after Hosni Mubarak yielded his presidency to the unified masses of Tahrir Square, Egypt's could-be revolution is a deeply divided mess. The multi-partisan groups of youth activists who spearheaded the revolt can no longer agree on whether they should continue demonstrating, and even those who wish to demonstrate can no longer coordinate their speakers, schedules, or locations. Moreover, there are significant splits among youth activists within these groups, as well as between the members of these groups and the parent organizations with which they are affiliated as individuals.

These divisions can be traced, in part, to the Muslim Brotherhood's call for its members to vote "yes" on the constitutional amendments. The Brotherhood is the only opposition movement supporting the amendments, and the presence of its youth members within certain revolutionary groups has put pressure on those groups to stay away from Tahrir Square.

"We are afraid that some tragedies will occur between those saying yes and no, especially now that the Muslim Brotherhood is saying yes," said Shadi el-Ghazali Harb, a representative of the Democratic Front Party (DFP) in the Coalition of Revolutionary Youth on Thursday evening. "We did not want to show this image in the world, so we're directing our efforts to distributing pamphlets."

But still other revolutionary groupings, such as the Union of Revolutionary Youth and a gathering of independents (cue Life of Brian), had promised to demonstrate, as did the DFP. "But it called for people without organizing them," said activist Bilal Diab.

The divisions among these organizations and today's relatively paltry turnout in Tahrir Square bolster the military's bid to end its direct governance of the country as soon as possible. The passage of tomorrow's referendum is essential to that aim, because it would allow new presidential and parliamentary elections to be held within the next six months. Alternatively, if the referendum fails, it would leave the military scrambling for a new way forward.

For this reason, the military has taken a number of steps in the past few days to tip the scales in its favor. Last night, soldiers policed the sidewalks of Tahrir Square to keep people moving, apparently hoping to prevent activists from staging another overnight sit-in. The military further ordered state-run television stations to stop featuring critics of the proposed constitutional amendments after Thursday. And on Friday, soldiers surrounded protesters at various locations around Tahrir Square, keeping the crowds contained and thereby discouraging more people from joining in.

Perhaps most alarmingly, the military fulfilled its promise for judicial oversight of tomorrow's referendum by including 47 dead justices and 52 justices no longer working in Egypt on its list of judicial monitors. In response, 2000 judges threatened not to participate in supervising the referendum, which opens the possibility of widespread fraud -- most likely in the military's favor. There are also irregularities in the distribution of polling stations. For example, there is only one polling station in the relatively liberal, densely populated Cairo neighborhood of Zamalek, but 47 in Talkha, a small village in the Nile Delta, where the pro-amendments Muslim Brotherhood is strongest.

Many Egyptians are already starting to feel dispirited. "I feel that I'm being led astray," said Yasmin Amin. "We're going to get hit on the back of the neck."

Not all Egyptians are dispirited, though. The increasing likelihood that the referendum will pass has energized the Muslim Brotherhood, which was reportedly campaigning in its strongholds earlier today. In contrast to the innumerable non-Islamist opposition groups and parties that are still competing for attention, the Muslim Brotherhood has an effective network of members and supporters that it can mobilize at any time. And the sooner that Egypt holds its elections, the greater the Muslim Brotherhood's advantage over its amateurish opponents.

"If there is an election tomorrow, they will win," said Amir Raouf, who protested against the amendments.

But the Muslim Brotherhood doesn't seem too concerned either way. "If we run elections tomorrow, the Muslim Brotherhood will win the number of seats they challenge," said Islam Lotfy, who represents the Muslim Brotherhood Youth on the Coalition. "And if it's in three months, they'll gain the same seats. And if they want to do it in two years, they will also win. Because they're well organized and have a big constituency."

The passage of the amendment, however, would probably undermine the Brotherhood's cooperation with other movements. "I expect that if the referendum turns out to be yes, the tensions between us and the Brotherhood will rise," said Harb.

Indeed, the post-Mubarak honeymoon has ended. And the trials of transition begin tomorrow.

Eric Trager is a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Pennsylvania in political science, where his research focuses on Egyptian opposition parties, and an associate scholar at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was in Egypt during the 2011 anti-Mubarak revolts, and his writings have appeared in Foreign Affairs, The Atlantic, and The New Republic, among many other publications. From 2006-2007, Eric lived in Cairo, Egypt as an Islamic Civilizations Fulbright fellow, where he studied at the American University in Cairo. He graduated from Harvard University in 2005 with a degree in Government and language citations in Arabic and Hebrew. Eric currently resides in Philadelphia with his wife, Alyssa.

Source: The Atlantic