Has anyone yet explained why President George W Bush is about to make a state visit to the United Kingdom? In my time at the Foreign Office, the supreme accolade of an invitation from Her Majesty was only awarded after long deliberation had convinced the prime minister and foreign secretary that Britain's national interest would be served by arranging for the king, queen or president in question to perform a number of meaningless ceremonies and eat numerous mediocre meals in the company of the royal family. What do we have to gain by feting President Bush?
According to Downing Street, George Bush's presence in London will provide "an important opportunity to deepen our close relations with a close international partner". How much closer is it possible to get than the closeness that made us follow America into an unjustified war? President and prime minister meet each other almost every month. Clearly, this state visit had been arranged for reasons that do not meet the usual criteria.
I was minister in attendance when the king of Sweden made his state visit to Scotland. We had just confirmed our membership of the old common market and wanted to demonstrate that we still loved the countries of the European Free Trade Area which had chosen to remain outside. Whether or not that object was achieved by the court and cabinet singing Will Ye No' Come Back Again? in the Edinburgh Assembly Rooms is not the point. It was done for a purpose.
The same was true of the state visit of President Ceausescu of Romania. That was after my time. But I did accompany him from Heathrow to Chequers at the beginning of an earlier weekend break. He complained throughout the journey that he was being treated with little respect. The Queen was not there to meet him on the runway. No helicopter had been provided. On the way back (when I was also chaperone) he paid a visit to the duty free shop where he bought large quantities of rubbish which he charged to Her Britannic Majesty. He got his state visit in the end because he was thought to be an anti-Soviet communist who could be flattered into causing trouble for Moscow.
But how is the national interest - real or imaginary - served by George Bush inspecting a guard of honour from the Household Brigade? Is there a single item of US policy - foreign or domestic - that will be changed by the talks that accompany the visit? Will the two leaders know each other better by the time the cavalcade moves on? Heaven help us, this state visit has all the signs of a genuine tribute. Tony Blair is expressing his admiration and gratitude.
The only alternative explanation - which I would prefer to believe - is that President Bush, rather like Ceausescu, agitated for an invitation. It is easy enough to identify what is in it for the president. At the very beginning of the American electoral cycle, he is under attack from the Democrats (and some Republicans) for turning some friendly nations against the US. His critics also accuse him of being an insular cornball who had never left home territory before he was elected and could not remember the names of the leaders of major allied countries. Does anyone doubt that film clips from the state dinner at Buckingham Palace will appear in his television campaign commercials?
Tony Blair, on the other hand, has nothing to gain and everything to lose from the visit. He may not have noticed it, but President Bush is regarded in Britain with something approaching contempt. He has achieved the unusual feat of being simultaneously sinister and ridiculous, and he is regarded as the rich kid who grew up arrogant and inarticulate. But it is his role in making the war in Iraq inevitable that makes him unwelcome here. There are no votes to be won by being buddy-buddy with a man who is despised by most of the British public.
Tony Blair is right to insist that we do not have to choose between friendship with the US and a real commitment to the EU. Unfortunately, many EU member states think that, in truth, we have made the choice already. Bush at the palace willingly serves to reinforce that view. The glorification of the president is so gratuitous that it is difficult not to believe that he is being elevated above all others, explicitly to put the uppity French and Germans in their place.
How the president himself will react to the humiliation of a state visit that has had to be truncated and emasculated because of the strength of feeling against him, we can only guess. We can rightly discount the behaviour of the hooligans who try physically to disrupt his progress. But he ought to know how strongly so many of us feel. Send a postcard to the American embassy, Grosvenor Square, London W1A 1AE. comment@guardian.co.uk
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