The influence of 1.1m Muslim voters is limited by the fact they tend to be clustered in safe Labour seats. Nevertheless, their support could be pivotal in several constituencies held by Labour with slender majorities.
Anger over the war was demonstrated yesterday when a small group of militants disrupted a press conference organised by the mainstream Muslim Council of Britain. While such militancy is espoused by a small minority, it illustrates the divisions in the Muslim vote. The council, which has about 350 affiliate bodies, is committed to participation, not agitation, and "constructive engagement" in dealing with government.
The militant publicity seekers denounced the council as a government lackey even though the organisation has maintained a non-partisan stance in the run-up to the election despite being courted openly by the three mainstream parties.
What it has done is urge full participation and raise issues that it suggests Muslims should ask candidates about before voting.
The issues range from a timetable for the withdrawal of troops from Iraq - an issue ministers are trying to ignore in their campaign - to new laws against racial hatred, which Labour blames the Tories and Liberal Democrats for holding up in the last parliament. The picture is complicated by enduring Muslim concerns about homosexuality.
The Muslim Association of Britain, a highly vocal body, has told supporters not to back any sitting MP who voted for the war and anti- terrorist legislation.
If followed to the letter, this would mean Muslims voting mainly for some Labour backbenchers, Lib Dems and Respect, the anti-war party, which is fielding candidates nationwide.
The fall-out from the war and the targeted nature of the election campaign, with all three parties pouring resources into the most marginal seats, have made Muslims an important group of swing voters.
The most recent survey, an ICN poll for The Guardian conducted in March 2004, indicated that Muslim support for Labour had plummeted from 75 per cent at the 2001 election to 38 per cent. Since then some Muslims might have returned to the Labour fold, following elections in Iraq and the brighter outlook for the Middle East peace process.
The Lib Dems believe their newly established appeal among Muslim voters will help them take the marginal seats of Birmingham Hodge Hill, Birmingham Yardley, Rochdale and Oldham East and Saddleworth, Cardiff Central and Luton South.
The Blackburn constituency of Jack Straw has taken on a totemic significance for an antiwar protest campaign, although local Labour strategists believe the foreign secretary will hold on to his near 10,000 majority, helped by Lord Ahmed, the Labour peer, leading Muslim supporters on his behalf. In Bethnal Green and Bow, east London, which has a large Muslim community, Oona King, the Labour MP, faces a tougher challenge from George Galloway of Respect, with Shahagir Faruk, a Muslim Tory candidate, gaining some advantage.
Lib Dem strategists believe Muslims are deserting Labour because of the war and civil liberty issues, and because younger Muslims are less willing to follow the tradition of backing Labour.
Tahor Abbas, director of the centre for ethnic studies at Birmingham University, said that while older Muslims were balancing Iraq against other issues, younger voters were more polarised. This mattered because about one-third of Muslims were under 15 in 2001. Lord Ahmed believed there were up to 30 marginal constituencies, many held by Labour, where the Muslim vote could "make a difference". However, he contended that widespread discontent with the war had to be set in the context of domestic issues that concerned the wider community.
Mohammad Saleem Akhtar, chairman of the Chamkol Sharif mosque in east Birmingham, said some politicians and the media were wrong to view Muslims as single-issue voters.
"Muslims are bitter not just about Iraq, but also about the foreign policy stance of the UK on Palestine and Kashmir. Beyond that, they are concerned with social issues such as education, employment and tax," he said.
Mr Akhtar, who runs his own accountancy practice, said small business owners were dismayed by higher national insurance, and "there is no guarantee it will not go up again".
However, he judged Gordon Brown as far more popular with Muslims than Mr Blair because of his championing of third world debt relief and seeming less supportive of the war in Iraq.
Manzoor Maghal, chairman of the Muslim Forum in Leicester, praised Mr Brown for abolishing double taxation on halal mortgages, and funding Islamic schools, while accusing the Conservatives of adopting hardline immigration policies.
