Now that the Easter vacation is long over, it looks as if the truce between the indigenous protesters and the government could also come to an abrupt end. The multinational oil companies came out and asserted that all production at the well heads belonged to them, whereas the Bolivian Constitution in Article 139 clearly states that all hydrocarbon reserves belong to the nation. The arguments going back and forth could end up in a legal back alley.

Even now, the multinationals are maintaining that the 18% royalty plus the 32% non-recoverable tax burden is the same as Evo Morales demanded. Those Axis readers who have been reading this series on Bolivia know that this was the main reason behind the road blocks which paralyzed the country last month.

Little attention is being paid to the decision in Congress which passed the Hydrocarbon Law, and an all out campaign is being waged to diminish the tax and royalty burden due to be levied on the multinationals operating in Bolivia.

Amendments could spark more protests

The Hydrocarbon Law passed two weeks ago by the Bolivian Congress is now before the Senate for its ratification. There are fears that the Senate may amend parts of the law rendering it closer to the proposals of President Mesa, who was prepared to allow the multinationals claw back the 32% tax paid.

The reaction from the indigenous leaders has been to ready themselves for more road blocks and to change their stance to demand an outright 50% royalty payment. They are resolute in their determination to establish once and for all time their ownership and stewardship of their natural resources. Having learned from the past, they are absolutely determined to deny and future exploitation of their natural resources by the global corporate empire.

Mesa defends the oil companies and contradicts himself

President Mesa has submitted 18 observations on the text of the law which are to be considered by the Senate, once again marking him as one of the most influential defenders of multinational interests in the country, since all the observations favor the foreign companies. This tactic would explain, in hindsight, why he did not resign and is still participating in the struggle to defraud his own people of their legitimate rights over the gas reserves. There is no question about where his loyalty resides.

Although Mesa has admitted that one of the main problems facing the country is the fiscal deficit, he has still rejected the 32% non-recoverable tax clause, even though he himself proposed this measure in the national gas referendum in June 2004. His behavior amounts to nothing less than ill-conceived obfuscation and trickery.

Peace in the hands of the Senate

The decision of the Bolivian Senate will be the key to peace or more social strife in Bolivia. One thing is certain, however, Evo Morales and his well organized indigenous movement will not back down on this matter on vital national importance for the Bolivian people. Any further victory by Morales’ strategy could continue to see him grow in popularity.

At this moment, a high powered chess game is being played out by President Mesa: The Hydrocarbon Chamber which represents the multinationals and back door deals in the Senate with the aim of reaching a "compromise", which will no doubt be rejected by the Bolivian people.

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