HONG KONG Beijing has made no secret of whom it is rooting for in Taiwan's presidential elections. In China's eyes, President Chen Shui-bian is unreliable and undesirable. His opponent, Lien Zhan, chairman of the National Party, is preferable simply because Beijing trusts that Lien won't take Taiwan any further down the road toward independence.

That, after all, is what Beijing seeks - assurances that Taiwan will not be lost forever.

China's leaders accept that reunification is not realistic in the short-term. But they will do everything possible, including resorting to coercion, to ensure that the long-term goal of reunification is not nullified.

President George W. Bush, at Beijing's insistence, stated last December that the United States supports the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. However, the escalated tension in the Strait during the past few months has served as a reminder that maintaining the status quo is increasingly difficult. A small-scale crisis, driven by domestic constraints, can spin out of control, with dire consequences.

Beijing has been putting all its eggs in one basket, banking on the wonders of economic dependence. The more dependent Taiwan is economically on mainland China, the more prone Taiwan's people will be to accept reunification. Or so officials in Beijing tell you, adding: Time is on our side.

But economics alone will not sway Taiwan's public. Time is not necessarily on Beijing's side. More and more people on the island think of themselves as belonging to Taiwan, not China. Regardless of whether Chen or Lian is elected president on March 20, Beijing needs to stretch out its hand and convince Taiwan's people that it has genuinely benign intentions when pursuing reunification.

Beijing's own actions will be decisive if the majority of Taiwan's people are to be persuaded that their destiny is in some way linked to that of mainland China.

At present, an increasing number of Taiwan's people are repulsed by Beijing's resolve to isolate Taiwan in the international community. Beijing's attempt to stop World Health Organization officials from visiting Taiwan during the SARS crisis infuriated people in Taiwan, regardless of their political views. Still today, people in Taiwan will ruefully exclaim, "Who cares about Taiwan?" referring to a Chinese WHO delegate's retort on television last year, after China had succeeded in blocking Taiwan's application to attain observer status in the World Health Assembly.

There are several initiatives Beijing could take in the next few months, regardless of who wins the presidential elections, to convey true sincerity to the ordinary people of Taiwan.

Beijing should offer Taiwan an Olympic event to host during the 2008 Summer Olympics. If there really is only One China, as Beijing adamantly claims, then this would be a perfect opportunity to prove it to the Chinese living in Kaohsiung, for example. Kaohsiung, in the southern part of Taiwan, is known as a hotbed for independence supporters. If the Olympic baseball games were held there, it would go a long way in fostering a feeling of Chinese-ness among Taiwan's people, as Beijing so intently hopes. Baseball is immensely popular in Taiwan, but much of an enigma on the mainland.

Table tennis spurred ties between Washington and Beijing back in 1972. Football reduced animosity at the grass-roots level when Japan and South Korea, former enemies, hosted soccer's World Cup in 2002. Why couldn't baseball do the same?

There are numerous ways Beijing could include Taiwan, starting from inviting someone from Taiwan along on one of China's space missions. Hong Kong's citizens, regardless of what they think about Beijing's politics, gave such a jubilant welcome to China's first man in space, Yang Liwei, that there was no doubt that many of them were moved by pride "in belonging to a great Chinese nation," just as Beijing wishes.

A good-will visit to Taiwan by China's prime minister, Wen Jiabao, without preconditions, would also go down well among Taiwan's people. Wen's ability to reach out to the ordinary citizen was much applauded when he visited Hong Kong after the SARS crisis.

Including Taiwan in part of the Olympic glory and sending Wen Jiabao to Taiwan are, of course, merely gestures. They do not address fundamental differences that exist between the two sides regarding possible political integration. But given the heightened level of distrust among Taiwan's people toward Beijing's intentions, gestures are a good starting point.

Linda Jakobson is senior researcher of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, based in Hong Kong.