Another political gambit

However, this second political gambit in less than a week by Mesa (he originally "resigned" only to be reconfirmed by Congress two days later) � will not do anything to break the deadlock in the gas war, the nub of which is the amount of royalty to be levied on gas exports � 18% proposed by the government or 50% as demanded by Deputy and indigenous leader, Evo Morales.

Just as the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo by a student sparked the First World War in 1914, the slap or assault on Evo Morales by a banana magnate at Cochabamba airport, was the detonator for the blockades to be intensified by his indigenous supporters throughout the country.

Paralyzed

Banana producers have been hardest hit by the blockades as their perishable produce cannot reach the Pacific coast of South America to be exported. Their fruit and other food supplies are rotting in almost two thousand trucks lined up along the main routes that cross the country from west to east.

It is interesting that this banana entrepreneur blames Morales for his woes, when it would benefit him and Bolivia as a whole, if he called on Mesa to accept the 50% royalty on gas exports. This would pump more money into the economy and thus create more demand for food, including bananas. It seems obvious that local businesses support the set of values being espoused by Mesa and the Bolivian ruling classes, even though they will simply benefit the global corporate empire, in the long run.

Resolve and weakness

No quarter has been given by either side in this long running dispute and if there is no compromise, food shortages resulting in panic buying and even riots could break out in the next few days. Some will blame Morale�s "intransigence", others will blame Mesa. This conflict is slowly turning into a war of attrition.

If Mesa succeeds in selling out to multinational interests as he seems hell bent on doing, this will put the indigenous struggle back several steps in Bolivia, and could lead to even more protests. If Morales and his supporters maintain their resolve, it is more than probable that the government will either have to cede to the demands on the 50% royalty, or simply collapse. I interpret Mesa�s offer of "early elections" as a political gambit that illustrates his weakness.

General strike goes ahead

The 48 hour general strike in support of nationalizing all hydrocarbons, called for by the Bolivian Workers Confederation, got underway yesterday. Classes were held in many parts of the country and information of the impact of this strike has been sketchy on the international news wires, as it was somehow overshadowed by the assault on Morales as he was about to board a plane.

The current deadlock could mean that Mesa�s call for early elections will not really matter, as the government has lost control of the country and is doing very little to govern or solve the impasse. Mesa's primary tactics are in Congress intended to consolidate his constitutional hold by passing the gas law and a law to break the blockades.  These tactics could just be Mesa�s ticket to survival.

We await further developments in this fluid situation.  Stay tuned.

� Copyright 2005 by AxisofLogic.com

Carlos Herrera has been writing this important series on Developments in Bolivia as they occur on an almost daily basis.

You can also read his articles on other countries, like Ecuador, as the ripples of the Bolivarian Revolution spread into other countries in Latin America.

You can also find his analyses on the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, where he resides on VHeadline.

You can read Mr. Herrera's bio on Axis of Logic and contact him at:  carlos@axisoflogic.com