Editor's Note: The sword of Sim�n Bol�var is once again cutting through the South American consciousness. The Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela is leading the way with many indigenous and dispossessed in other countries following the lead of Hugo Ch�vez in the 500 year struggle for freedom, historical identity and real self-determination. Ecuador is a case in point. Carlos Herrera's analysis below helps us understand more about the geopolitical importance of this country of just over 13 million people. - Axis of Logic

Published in February, 2000

"In the small South American country of Ecuador, a coalition of workers, Indians, peasants, students, and certain sectors of the military joined forces in an effort to overthrow a president who had become increasingly unpopular. In Quito, protestors encircled governmental buildings thereby paralyzing their operations. Similar protests occurred in the coastal port city of Guayaquil, and spread to other smaller towns throughout the country. The military declined to come to the aid of the embattled government, thereby refusing to assume its stereotypical role of using repression to defend the interests of the oligarchy. Some lower-level officers and soldiers even provided overt support to the revolutionary movement. After a brief period of euphoria which appeared to be ushering in a new period of social relations with optimistic expectations of increased Indigenous and popular participation in political power, the country's elite reestablished their control. The lower classes were once again marginalized and excluded from political processes."

The Politics of Exclusion: Ecuador's
Glorious May Revolution of 1944
- Marc Becker

Ecuador is a country on the Pacific coast of South America and one of the poorest in the region. It's main claim to fame are the Galapagos Islands and the "volcano highway" with 17 volcanos such as Cotopaxi, Chimborazo and Tungurahau rising up from the central mountains which form the northern part of the Andes chain. With around 13 million people, most of whom are of indigenous extraction dating back to the Inca Empire and whose native languages are predominantly Quechua and Aymara, Ecuador is a typical example of a South American country where oligarchic neocolonialism still rules. The indigenous majority still suffers from exclusion and are generally born into and die in poverty.

In the 1820's, Ecuador was part of what Sim�n Bol�var called La Gran Colombia - a union of modern day Colombia (then New Granada), Venezuela and Ecuador. In fact, Manuela S�enz, Bol�var�s lover and the "Libertadora del Libertador", was born in Quito and in turn became a revolutionary, accompanying Bol�var in his quest of liberating the Andean countries from Spanish imperial rule. Thus, in the collective memory of the Ecuadorians, as in Venezuela, Bolivia, and Colombia, there still exist the vestiges of the Bolivarian ideal of freedom, social justice, self-determination and cultural autonomy, despite 20th century trans-culturalization as an important weapon of the Northern Empire.

Lucio Guti�rrez (current)

Lucio Guti�rrez: The current government in Ecuador is headed by President Lucio Guti�rrez. The result of the dollarization instituted by the former Mahuad regime within a brutal neoliberal framework has been instrumental not only in the accelerating impoverishment of the majority of the population, but also in the resulting street protests against Guti�rrez.

The Current Regime

Guti�rrez is a former Army colonel who led an armed rebellion against the then Mahaud regime. In 1999, he was seen by many as a second Hugo Ch�vez but soon proved himself to be another puppet of US imperialism. Within ten days of his election in 2003 he visited George W. Bush in Washington and effectively sold out to US economic and geopolitical interests. Ecuador's fragile economy is now under firm control of the IMF austerity program after an additional loan of US$205 million from the IMF was granted. In line with neoliberal economic policies, basic services were privatized which sent costs soaring and plunged 80% of the population into even greater poverty. Ecuador is currently negotiating a free trade pact with the US - the sardine and shark syndrome.

Guti�rrez came to power riding a wave of anti-corruption sentiment. Self-styling himself an "Ecuadorian Chavez", he espoused left-nationalist rhetoric and gained support for his candidacy from two political parties:

• The indigenous party Pachakutik (the political wing of the Indigenous Federation of Ecuador - CONAIE)
  
  
• The Movement for Popular Democracy (MPD), the front organisation for the Communist Party of Ecuador (Marxist-Leninist) (PCMLE)

Thus, at the beginning of his presidency, Guti�rrez had the support of the indigenous alliance, the Pachakutik. But approximately a year and a half later, the Pachakutik abandoned the Guti�rrez political platform and declared itself in opposition to the neoliberal policies being instituted at the behest of the IMF with the blessing of Guti�rrez, as well as to his failure to tackle corruption head-on.

The Threat of a Military Coup by Guti�rrez

With growing resistance to his grip on power and little or no political support, fears are rife that Guti�rrez may begin to rely heavily upon his strong base in the military. Guti�rrez is a graduate of Washington's notorious terrorist-training-camp - School of the Americas. This sparks concerns that he might launch a military coup in order to maintain his grip on power. To entrench his control of the military, Gutierrez has purged more than 100 officers from the army. His popularity has been plummeting ever since, amid allegations of corruption, the intimidation of opposition figures and the violent suppression of media, critical of the government. All three have increased dramatically under Guti�rrez' term in office.

With one of its puppets under threat from growing unrest in the Andean region, the US is becoming more and more concerned over the latent instability in Ecuador and the risk that a Bolivarian government like that of Venezuela could be installed. After massive popular protest marches in Guayaquil with some 250,000 people on 26th January and a further march of at least the same magnitiude in Quito on 17th February, Guti�rrez would appear to be holding on to power by the skin of his teeth.

The "Threat" of Democracy in Ecuador

According to Dieterich, Washington needs to get rid of Guti�rrez to offset the risk of a Bolivarian government eventually coming to power in Ecuador. However, with a smooth transition, the constitutional order intact, and vice-president Alfredo Palacios taking over, Washington and the local oligarchy could consolidate their hold over the country. This is especially so considering Washington's transnational interests, especially in Petroecuador. This may also be the case since the opposition forces do not as yet have enough cohesion to mount an effective challenge to the established order. With Guti�rrez living at his apartment in New York, the main symbol of discontent would be "out of sight and out of mind".

Four Blocks of Power Wait for Guti�rrez' Demise

There are four main blocks of power waiting to step into Guti�rrez shoes.

• The first block is the Right Wing, including the Social Christian Party with the mayor of Guayaquil, Jaime Nebot, at its head and the weakening Le�n Febres Cordero, an old school tyrannical oligarch. This block represents neoliberal economic interests.
  
  
• The second force is the peasant-indigenous movement which has been considerably weakened in recent years due to the activities of the CIA which has managed to divide the indigenous peoples using the penetration of evangelical sectarian groups. The cooperation or rather, selling out, of indigenous leaders such as Antoinio Vargas involved in receiving money and prebends, and finally the loose alliance against Guti�rrez himself which has been discredited by the corporate run media.

• The third force is the self-denominated "left" and "center left" which is composed of: trade unionists; political parties - such as the Socialist Party and the Demcratic Left; important sectors of the urban intellectuals; and Chinese and ex- Moscovite parties with some figures in the ranks of judges and students. Essentially, this is an opportunistic movement, without principles and open to alliances with any government to gain its quota of power.
  
  
• The fourth force are the armed forces. All the generals have sold out to Gut�errez, while in the lower ranks such as colonels, there is fear that they may lose their lucrative postions in the military hierarchy, if an armed rebellion fails. They are biding their time and waiting for a change in the correlation of forces and will then take the opportunity to drop Guti�rrez like a hot potato.

With all likely opposition divided, Guti�rrez has managed to hang on to power by buying loyalties using funds from the public coffers, but even this mechanism appears to be exhausted. He has lost all his main allies, the most important of which is Colonel Patricio Acosta, his main operator - as Montesinos was to Fujimori. However, since Acosta has the documents of Guti�rrez' wrong-doing in his hands, he has started to talk even though he carried out all the "dirty business" for Guti�rrez for years and could well be implicated himself. The documents that Acosta possesses about the illegal financing of Guti�rrez' presidential campaign are enough to have him impeached and removed. The funds received include US$100 thousand from the European American Bank (EAB, New York) which belongs to the Citigroup, and US$15 thousand from the Taiwanese Nationalist Party.

Guti�rrez' decisi�n to destitute the Supreme Court in a sort of "judicial coup" has also rebounded against him and was one of the reasons for the recent mass mobilizations in Guayaquil and Quito as already mentioned. The upshot of this decision to infringe on the judiciary and pack the courts with his puppets has resulted in the OAS citing Ecuador to a hearing about the constitutional situation in the country on February 11th. The hearing itself is due to take place on March 4th in Washington and will be heard by the Interamerican Commission on Human Rights in response to the accusation of undermining the constitutional order of the Republic of Ecuador, which is evident based on the precepts of the 1998 constitution.

Guti�rrez is thus trapped on all sides and it is just a question of time before he resigns or is removed, either legally or by mass discontent in the country. It is now up to the Bolivarian forces to organize themselves in anticipation of the moment when they can rise to power and fulfil Ecuador's historical destiny as the Bolivarian Republic of Ecuador.

Movement for the Bolivarian Republic of Ecuador (M-RBE)

• Strengthening of unity, dignity and nacional sovereignty
  
  
• Immediate integration into the process of South American Unity
  
  
• A multi-ethnic, multi-cultural state of participative democracy
  
  
• Economic sovereignty of development, participative democracy and social justice within the framework of Latin American integration
  
  
• Immediate integration into TVSur
  
  
• Immediate integration into PetroAm�rica
  
  
• South American military integration
  
  
• No to Plan Colombia, Free Trade Agreement with US and US Manta military base
  
  
• Renegotiate or write off external debts in conjunction with Latin American power block
  
  
• Strengthen the decentralization process in the country, in Municipalities and Provincial Governments
  
  
• Full equality of rights for women and their unrestricted participation
  
  
• No to privatizations. Strengthening of State Organisms. Repeal of the law enforcing "flexible" salaries
  
  
• Defense of Amazonia as patrimony of the Great Homeland

Alter so many broken promises in the past, only a coherent link between this national transformation program and ethical protagonists will be able to restore faith in the political process now lacking in the population as a whole. This will be the beginning of the refounding of the homeland of Manuela S�enz, within the emerging Great Homeland of Sim�n Bol�var.

Due to the divided nature of the Ecuadorean opposition, it goes without saying that some political negotiations will have to take place, as they did in Uruguay when the left winger Tabar� V�squez won the presidency, representing the Broad Front. The Broad Front was a hodge-podge of parties from all political spectrums set up to defeat the ruling Colorado Party. The danger is that if the Bolivarian movement gathers force and looks likely to come to power, then infiltrators such as neoliberals dressed in Bolivarian garb will have to be eeked out as they try to take their slice of the cake and betray the Bolivarian government as soon as they take power, much in the same way Guti�rrez sold out to U.S. interests after his election.

One thing is clear about the influence of the Bolivarian movement in Ecuador as exemplified by President Ch�vez:

Approximately one year ago President Hugo Ch�vez Frias was invited to the Central University of Ecuador to give a speech on Bol�var on the occasion of the founding of a new Bolivarian Studies Department. His speech was shown live on Venezuelan television and at one point the participants - mostly intellectuals and students - were chanting in unison: "Chavez S�, Lucio No"! On another occasion Pachakutik politicians were invited to Chavez' "Alo Presidente" program (the Sunday VTV program when President Chavez receives calls and talks to the people), and they talked openly about the founding of the Bolivarian Republic of Ecuador.

Rebeli�n, Heinz Dieterich

Green Left Weekly, Duroyan Fertl