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By Les Blough, Editor
Axis of Logic
Tuesday, Jan 11, 2005
From: Jon
Sent: Friday, January 28, 2005 6:56 AM
Subject: In regards to your article
Dear Mr. Feltham,
It does seem likely that the markets may likely provide negative returns in the near future. The problem for most people is, "where do I put my cash assets"? Would it be wise to convert to Euros and if so, how exactly should this be done? What percent of cash assets should be diversified into other currencies? If you believe realestate and bond markets are likely to fall, do you think going to cash positions is prudent at this time? Again, the problem is, "where to go to preserve wealth"?
I look forward to your ideas.
Regards,
Jon [last name excluded]
Dear Jon
Many thanks for your kind email, which I value.
There is an ancient rule of the markets, which I personally believe applies at this time.
Quote: "When in doubt, stay long." In other words, when the markets are uncertain, stay long in cash.
Investing forward, in the Euro, is, I believe quite a gamble: whilst the ECB (European Central Bank) have suggested that they must raise interest rates, to do so would obviously increase the value of the Euro against most other hard currencies.
This will almost instantly, exacerbate the problems already faced by European manufacturers, particularly in Germany, since their exports (upon which they rely) would become even more costly. If the manufacturers absorb the further currency rise, then this impacts on their bottom line!
The Euro ought properly to be considered, forward, as losing value, against most other hard currencies, eventually. But not for a bit, since the whole process is hugely cumbersome and rate changes need the agreement of all member states.
In uncertain times, the classic hedge has always been gold: interestingly, gold has, of course, a negative investment factor, since it earns no interest or dividends and relies on performance (i.e. capital appreciation).
Depending upon your portfolio, I would best of all, invest in a mixed (self-balancing) currency basket, or better, follow Warren Buffet's example, and very carefully, pick value stocks.
By value stocks, I mean companies which are core manufacturers/services, have an excellent net asset value to issued stock value (as against high flying "Hope" stocks!), and demonstrate gradual and stable growth over years, rather than spectactular performance for a few years.
Interestingly, Berkshire Hathaway have no Tech stocks in their portfolio!
At this time, I am firm in my own belief that it is impossible to forecast, with any accuracy, the futures markets.
For every analyst who gets it right, there will be many who don't.
The big worry, is still Derivatives: no one can quantify the the true downside position, since it has become so very complex and interactive it is impossible to calculate.
Net advice: stay long in cash and look, later on (shortly!) for bargains!
Best wishes
Michael |
Editor's note: Our Columist on the Death Penalty, Britta Slopianka has been corresponding with Gregory Alan Kokal for 4 years. Through correspondence, Britta became his friend and visited him in prison last year when she traveled from Germany to continue her work on behalf of those on Death Row. Mr. Kokal has been on Florida Death Row for 22 years. He filed a Petition for Writ of Habeas Corpus in the Florida Supreme Court asking for relief from his death sentence. Mr. Kokal's wife, Esther wrote the letter below to Britta after she and her husband read her December article. We thank Britta for all the support and hard work she gives to those who languish on America's Death Rows and for her work toward the Abolition of the Death Penalty - a cause to which Axis of Logic is inexorably committed. - Eds.
From: ESTHER KOKAL
Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 19:10:53 GMT
To: BRITTA SLOPIANKA BRITTAIGEL@YAHOO.COM
Subject: HELLO
HI BRITTA-
MY NAME IS ESTHER KOKAL... MY HUSBAND SENT ME A VERY GOOD ARTICLE THAT HAS YOUR NAME ON IT REGARDING THE DEATH PENALTY... IT'S CALLED, "THE FORGOTTEN" AND THE ABOLITION OF THE DP IN THE HEART OF AMERICA (December 21, 2004). I LIVED IN LOS ANGELES AT THIS TIME- AND THE SURPRISE OF ANYONE BEING EXECUTED IN CALIFORNIA IS STILL BIG NEWS- STILL, THERE IS THE MISCONCEPTION THAT IT'S A WAY TO STOP CRIME.
AFTER ALL, WE HAVE OVER 600 INMATES ON DR HERE IN CALIFORNIA... AND SO IT GOES AS I DO TIME WITH GREGORY KOKAL AT UCI IN FLORIDA- WE'VE BEEN MARRIED FOR 13 YRS AND HAVE KNOWN EACH OTHER FOR OH, LET'S SEE, 17YRS. NOW. GREGORY ASKED ME TO SAY HELLO AND TO THANK YOU FOR ALL THAT YOU'RE DOING... I TOO THANK YOU.
WE JUST GOT TURNED DOWN BY THE ALMIGHTY INJUSTICE OF THE FLORIDA SUPREME COURT- SO ON WE GO TO OUR HABEAS ... I CAN'T IMAGINE LIFE WITHOUT THIS MAN WHO SITS FOR 22 YEARS FOR A CRIME ANOTHER PERSON COMMITTED - PROBLEM IS ... HE'S BEEN THERE TOO LONG AND NO ONE LISTENS ANYMORE. HE'S A MAN OF GOD AND HAS SURROUNDED HIS LIFE WITH FAITH UNBEKNOWNST TO ME... A STRONG MAN INDEED...
SO AGAIN, THANK YOU FOR ALL THAT YOU'RE DOING FOR THE GUYS EVERYWHERE THAT HAVE BEEN FORGOTTEN.
SINCERELY,
ESTHER KOKAL
January 22, 2004
From "Anna" in England
Two *small* problems with the President's interpretation of "freedom" and "liberty" not mentioned in your analysis are the belief that they include the freedom and liberty to despoil the planet and the freedom and liberty to ignore and even demolish international law, treaties, and similar obligations and long sought human aspirations at will. This is an irresponsible interpretation, even a besmirching of the words.
To many, America the sole superpower is now an empire apeing ancient Rome, which also was entirely self-centred, led by those interested only in holding power, pleasing it's own voters, shamelessly invoking their own interpretations of religion in that cause.
To a degree it would seem that Islamic terrorists act against the USA and it's allies (and anyone mistaken for it's allies, like western tourists and aid workers) out of ther own factional (religious, cultural, racial) resentments at that interpretation of "liberty" and " freedom", of that imperialism. The President therefore also showed a total lack of appreciation of the causes of the threats to the USA and so creates an even greater need of the military presence that, unprecedentedly surrounded his podium.
It is a shame you didn't notice that.
Anna
England
Sent: Friday, January 21, 2005 5:21 PM
To: contact2@axisoflogic.com
Subject: Comment on Les Blough's 1/21/04 Commentary
Axis of Logic,
I had a look at your website for the first time and was somewhat disgusted that you would use the term "Logic" so cynically and incorrectly to describe the inaccurate, emotion-based propaganda that passes for "analysis" on your publication.
Before reading anything I had a look at the biographies of your editorial staff and knew I didn't even have to read your writings to know what they would say. I read them anyway and realized how right I was:
Bush's speech defined liberty this way:
"In America's ideal of freedom, citizens find the dignity and security of economic independence, instead of laboring on the edge of subsistence. This is the broader definition of liberty that motivated the Homestead Act, the Social Security Act, and the G.I. Bill of Rights."
Does this definition of freedom include the dignity of those U.S. citizens who were put into cages yesterday while they protested his first-term wars on the people of Afghanistan, Iraq and Palestine?
I'm a former news guy of 25 years experienced who now writes history and nonfiction books with some experience with protestors. I once even stepped in on behalf of one protestor who chained his neck to a barrel to prevent his removal when police were going to use a dangerous welding torch to cut him loose. I respect protest. What I don't respect is the manipulation of the media, the goading of the police and the injury of the innocent. (What I love about hypocrites like you guys is that you will stop cheering my actions at helping the protestor when you find out he was an anti-abortion protestor -- another group with a message I disagree with.)
However, the protestors at the inauguration positioned themselves right in front of the network pool cameras so their signs could be seen and their antics recorded. They attempted to leverage an event -- either ignored or respected by most Americans as a way of getting their message across. They are without support, without a mature understanding of the events they are commenting on and without the respect of the general population. I saw one young man being interviewed and it was like watching a psychotic discussing his last conversation with God.
Your publication provides a fine example as to why this is.
"Cages"....? Come now. The protestors went to get arrested and they knew full well the consequences. You don't go to a movie theater the year after the Great Chicago Fire and yell "fire!" and you don't show up at the first inauguration after 9/11 and cause a public disturbance if you don't want to precipitate trouble.
Your martyrs went into holding cells and then bonded out. Those that assaulted police officers, hopefully, will end up with a felony charge. What would you have the police do, open the barricades and invite the protestors to rush the presidential limousine? I can assure you, the results of that stupidity would have been far worse than jail.
You and your website are a joke.
You are caricatures of a deceased political movement made irrelevant by your own lack of understanding clouded as it is by the unfocused, emotional perspective of your politics.
Propaganda is not a reasoned discussion which is why no one gives those like you any sort of platform. Productive, stinging criticism is accurate, insightful assessment of problems and their causes, not the sacrifice of truth for the purpose of advancing a leftist political view using the discredited methods of fascists and Stalinists.
Because of this, I was not surprised to see that you used the term "axis" in your publication's name.
Another example of your false assertions: Your claim that Bush is waging war on Afghanistan. Are you guys completely unhinged? Do you still believe that even a fantastic lie will be believed. Even the Afghans have now entered something close to democracy thanks to American, Canadians and German troops. Did you not see the result of the elections? Is there anything you can see?
I am writing to GoogleNews to complain about your organization posing as a legitimate news service. You have a right to your opinion, but opinion is all it is. While scrolling Google I'm looking for facts and find it perturbing to have my time wasted by websites such as yours cynically posing as a legitimate news source.
Stephen [last name omitted]
Georgia
Dear Stephen,
Thank you for taking the time to write to us. We believe that honest, open, courteous debate is the only thing that will help heal a greatly divided nation. Thus, I reply to you in the most courteous way possible. With all due respect, I haven't found anything in this letter you've written that sufficiently addresses the concerns raised in my analysis of Mr. Bush's inaugural speech. What I do see in your letter is a very angry person. Thus, your attempt to call our work "inaccurate, emotion-based propaganda" may be a classic form of projection. Your belief that Afghanistan is "entering something close to democracy" is an argument I would love to confront in the presence of a referee in formal debate. Your ad hominem attack on "protestors" is obviously a product of emotion, not fact.
Based upon the professional background you present, I cannot help but think that you are capable of writing a much more cogent argument to debate these issues. Your reference to us as "caricatures of a deceased political movement" may make you feel better temporarily, but of course would not be permitted in formal debate. Moreover, your threat to complain to Google News about our organization causes wonder about whether you think written opinions should be censored. I suspect that Google News hears complaints like this frequently from those who object to what they publish.
Please allow me to suggest that you return to square one when you've had time to settle down and then to respond to the article in question with a point-by-point refutation of the argument presented.
But we do thank you for taking the time to write to us and voicing your opinion - a right held by every U.S. citizen under the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution - one that we fight to preserve.
Very truly yours,
Les
Les Blough, Editor
Axis of Logic
Boston, MA (USA)
617-787-3498
The following exchange is in response to an article we published on January 11, 2004:
Media Critiques
Malicious communications and internet terrorism ... the same crime in the UK?
by Carlos Herrera and Les Blough, -VHeadline and Axis of Logic
-----Original Message-----
From: Gustavo Coronel [mailto:gcoronel@ceip.org]
Sent: Monday, January 10, 2005 5:31 PM
To: contact2@axisoflogic.com
Subject: Your note on Venezuela, written with a Mr. Carlos Herrera.
Dear Mr. Blough:
I see you quote one of my articles in your note and call it an example of " unsupported rants" by the Venezuelan opposition. Mr. Blough: I am a Venezuelan citizen, born in Venezuela, with full civic rights to express my opinion. My name is Gustavo Coronel. I am a real person. Mr. Carlos Herrera, you surely know ,is not a real person but a foreign mercenary hiding behind a Venezuelan name, at the unconditional and sycophantic service of the Venezuelan authoritarian regime.He does not live in Venezuela, so how should he know what our reality is? I have lived in Venezuela 90% of the time during the current regime and I know exactly what is going on. It is a real tragedy when foreigners without ethics, like " Herrera", use Venezuela as a battleground to vent their social resentment and inferiority complexes. What is a passtime or a source of income for these kind of people is a tragedy for us.
Gustavo Coronel
By promoting hate and insults against citizens, Roy Carson [Editor of Vheadline] will be responsible for the repression against me. Extreme repression is already taking place against political dissidents, while terrorists from FARC are being given Venezuelan nationality. Is this what you are in favor of?
Dear Mr. Coronel,
Thank you for taking the time to write to me in a civil and courteous manner. While we may vigorously disagree on certain matters, it is only by courteous and civil exchange of ideas that we can hope to learn and grow in our respective world-views. In your letter to me, you stated, "My name is Gustavo Coronel. I am a real person". I do not see you otherwise and respect you as "a real person" as I try to respect all human beings.
On this point you and I find ourselves in full agreement: That you have "full civic rights to express your opinion". I believe you have President Chavez and his administration to thank for those rights of free speech and I fully support your right to speak your mind. If he chose to do so, President Chavez and his administration certainly have the power to shut down the private media in Venezuela and it's continuing attacks on his administration. I respect the fact that he has not made such a totalitarian choice. I only hope that you appreciate your right to criticise the government and wish you would give the government due credit for those rights. It is not your right to free speech to which I object. Rather, it is what I view to be your one-sided opinion and your attacks on the Venezuelan democracy with which I find myself in profound disagreement. Carlos Herrera and Aleksander Boyd also should have the right to speak their minds. However, I find myself in sympathy with Herrera's criticism of Boyd and Boyd's ad-hominem attacks on Venezuelan democracy and his thinly-veiled support for violence in the past.
I believe that responsible use of free speech and journalistic integrity requires the writer to couch criticism in objective assessment rather than self-serving diatribes. Your January 8 article is an example of what I consider to be a distortion, using partial truths of the whole picture in Venezuela - from - the need to protect the presidency from calls for violence (especially following the assassination attempts against Chavez) - - to your suggestions that the Chavez government had something to do with the assassination of Danilo Anderson. If you cannot see anything good accomplished by the Chavez administration and continue one-sided attacks on this administration, you simply lack credibility with anyone except those who already agree with you.
Moreover, your lack of respect for the majority of the Venezuelan people who have repeatedly voted for President Chavez calls into question your claim to be defending Venezuelan citizens. Your claim to "know exactly what is going on" in Venezuela also begs credulity. No citizen of any country can possibly "know exactly what is going on" in this complex world. To think otherwise is nothing short of believing that you have a corner on the truth - i.e. you're right and anyone who disagrees with you is wrong.
I strongly encourage you to temper your arguments by presenting all sides of the debate in Venezuela rather than "preaching the gospel" of the opposition with everything you write. I try to do just that as editor of Axis of Logic, although I freely admit to my set of assumptions - i.e. my values of democracy, freedom of assembly, freedom of speech, the right of every nation to self-determination and independence from foreign interference in domestic affairs.
You have lived in Venezuela 90% of your life. You are therefore in a position to know what is happening in Venezuela better than I. However, even as one who has never lived in Venezuela, I defend my right to comment on what I consider to be our only remaining hope of a real democracy in the Western Hemisphere - Venezuela. Moreover, while I cannot claim to know all of the things known by a resident of Venezuela, I strongly oppose my government's use of my tax dollars to interfere with the domestic affairs of Venezuela, Iraq or any other foreign country. It saddens me that persons like yourself do not seem to realise and appreciate what you have in your country. You stated that you have been "repressed" by the Chavez government, again without supporting evidence. The only way I can understand your venom expressed toward the Venezuelan government is to assume that you or your family must have lost $$ or property under the Chavez administration. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but in the future, I think it would be wise to support such statements rather than to simply throw such words around. Again, they sound like nothing less than an emotional rant. That, in my view, is irresponsible journalism. I personally have given up a lucrative income and have lost materially to a significant degree as a result of my attempt to defend democracy in the United States. I do not complain about the losses because I value democracy above any temporal material goods that I may amass in my brief lifetime.
Your characterisations of Herrera as "a foreign mercenary" and Carson as one who "promotes hate and insults against [Venezuelan] citizens" is an example of my comment about your "unsupported rants". To these accusations I challenge you to "pony up" and support such accusations. I think it is wrong to demonise you, Boyd, Carson, Herrera or anyone else. But I defend my right to be critical of the work of anyone - just as I have been critical of the work of Aleksander Boyd. Your demonisation of persons like Carson and Herrera however, are simply destructive and accomplish nothing positive, in my humble opinion. I have been reading VCrisis, VHeadline, Venezuela Analysis, Venezuela Today, El Nacional, El Universal, etc. on a regular basis. I also read world newspapers and websites that inform and comment critically on the Chavez government such as ISI Emerging Markets, Financial Times, etc. Do you read all sides of the debate with an open mind?
Again, I appreciate the courteous and civil manner in which you have engaged me in this debate. I also would be among the first to defend your right to free speech - but not to the extent of fomenting insurrection and violence in your country. If we are to help heal the wounds among our citizens, we must continue to exchange ideas and learn from one another. One of the things I have learned from you in your letter is that you are capable of courteous and respectful disagreement.
Respectfully,
Les
Les Blough, Editor
Axis of Logic
Boston, MA (USA)
617-787-3498
www.axisoflogic.com
rmcmail@speakeasy.net
© Copyright 2003 by AxisofLogic.com
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