Now that the political crisis in Bolivia ended a few days ago, with President Mesa staying on due to his "responsibility to the Bolivian people", Congress rejecting Mesa�s request to bring elections forward to August 2005, instead of 2007, and the gas law waiting to be rubber stamped by the Senate, all would appear to have quieted down � at least for the time being.

If the gas law in its present form is not passed by the Senate, then there could be more road blocks in the highlands and another paralysis of the country. However, the two key events on the horizon in Bolivia are the proposed Constituent Assembly in December and the referendum being demanded by the separatists in Santa Cruz de la Sierra province in July or August.

Mesa floored by his own incompetence

Either of these electoral processes could decide the future direction of Bolivia. Consider this: President Mesa resigned, was reinstated by Congress, asked for early elections, had that rejected and did not resign after losing his political "floor" and the gas law vote went against him.  Based upon these facts, the only reasonable decision for him would have been to resign after such a disastrous week of failed political gambits and defeats.

So why didn�t he do so and leave honorably?

As they say, "There is more to this than meets the eye".

First of all, when Mesa took over the presidency of Bolivia in October 2003, it looked as if he had gained Evo Morales as an ally, despite Morales coming from the left political spectrum of the Movement to Socialism (MAS).  But Mesa has been gradually moving to the right and the fact that he supported the gas multinationals in the question of royalties and taxes, does not make him exactly a Bolivian patriot, despite all his empty rhetoric.

In my first article in this series, I explained the Santa Cruz referendum being proposed by President Mesa:

"Popular demands of the people are based on the approval of the law calling for a Constituent Assembly.  This was put forward by social organizations to block the referendum on the autonomy of the Santa Cruz region (the richest state in Bolivia).  The referendum to give autonomy to the Santa Cruz region was proposed by the local oligarchy and is backed by Washington. If approved, Santa Cruz could separate from Bolivia, endangering the cohesion of the State and could lead to a civil war. This separatist proposal is being backed by Washington using the theory of �divide and rule� and would effectively create an enclave of US influence in the center of South America.   Of course the poor of Bolivia would suffer if the richest state were to be broken off for the benefit of the wealthy and the U.S."

If elections had been approved by Congress, the Santa Cruz referendum could have been delayed and even clashed with the Constituent Assembly in December. General elections would have had to have taken precedence.

As it has turned out, Mesa is still President, the Santa Cruz separatists will continue to push for the referendum which could dismember Bolivia as a state, create a US enclave in Santa Cruz itself and endanger the South American Community of Nations which is still being gestated.

In addition, if Santa Cruz is separated from Bolivia by December 2005, one must ask, "Would the Constituent Assembly make any sense?" Bolivia as such would not exist in the form as it was founded in 1825 by Bolivar and Sucre, and would continue to be dismembered as happened in 1884, when Bolivia lost its only access to the sea to Chile, in the Pacific War, 1879 � 1884.

Mesa�s conspiracy of silence

I have not seen or heard Mesa speak out against the dismemberment of his country. Could this be the real reason why Mesa did not resign, as part of a conspiracy to dismember his own country being either paid off by the Santa Cruz ruling classes, the US, or both?

The Quirogas

In the past week, I have had correspondence with Luis Quiroga, the brother of ex Bolivian President Jorge Quiroga (See for Jorge Quiroga�s bio and political stance) who took over in 2001 when General Banzer died. Luis reacted to my series on Bolivia. I asked the following question on the Santa Cruz separatist referendum:

"I need you to answer one objective question so that I can get my facts straight: the referendum in Santa Cruz province: will this referendum be held just in Santa Cruz, or will it be held nationally? When will it be held? What are the legal fundamentals for this referendum, or is it a first in Bolivia?"

In response, Mr Luis Quiroga answered:

"All your referendum questions are good ones unfortunately there are no answers to them yet. No one knows how they will pick the constituents and it is not in any law. I know they are lost and especially Carlos Mesa who cannot find his face in a mirror despite his ego." (My italics)

The Quirogas attitude to Bolivian President Mesa, is implicit in this reply, and Jorge Quiroga, who will be a strong presidential candidate from the extreme right wing in 2007, has all the makings of another neoliberal Gonzalo S�nchez de Lozada, if you read his bio carefully.

I have not been able to obtain a better answer on the Santa Cruz referendum from anyone. If the referendum is just held in Santa Cruz and not nationally, this could be a real detonator for a civil war. As I say in my correspondence to Mr. Luis Quiroga:

"This separatist movement could spark a bloody civil war in Bolivia. Is that what you want, just to stop Evo Morales? Just look at other separatist movements in other parts of the world, and what has happened there. The Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka. ETA in the Basque Country. the IRA in Northern Ireland - without mentioning the Sudan or Eritrea. Do you have any idea what could happen in your own country, if this goes ahead? Maybe not immediately, but the danger of violence and dead innocents will always be lurking."

The implicit support by Luis Quiroga, and probably his brother Jorge, is based around their rejection of Evo Morales, the road blocks and the attendant social strife generated by the recent protests by the indigenous peoples for national sovereignty and self-determination. As Luis Quiroga says to me regarding the situation in Santa Cruz:

"Come to Santa Cruz, 95% of the population wants it (separation/referendum) because they can�t stand Evo"

This is probably 95% of people the Quiroga�s know, and their class is a minority in Bolivia. The ruling classes.

My final comments to Luis Quiroga are self explanatory.

"I would respectfully suggest that you examine your own position as implicitly expressed in your last message, regarding the Santa Cruz separatist movement. You say it is because of Evo. Luis, if you were a true patriot and loved Bolivia, you would not even consider allowing the dismemberment of your own country, which is what is being proposed by the people behind the Santa Cruz referendum. As ex President Jorge Quiroga's brother and his being a leading presidential candidate, you must have connections to influence this situation. If you do not, then you will go down into the tomb as a traitor to your own homeland, either due to your own inaction or by your active promotion of this unpatriotic madness.

Please forgive these strong words which are meant to make you reflect, but that is how I see it. Remember the historical founding of your country, and now, in defense of materialistic values fomented by the transculturalization inherent in US media dominance, you people from your social class are willing to undo the historical work done by Bolivar, Sucre and Simon Rodriguez in your country. Shame on you all!"

Dismemberment = defeat for Morales?

The growing power and influence of the indigenous peoples in not only Bolivia, but also Peru, Chile and Ecuador and are a real threat to the dominance of white European descendants traditionally in power in Bolivia. My theory is that if you split Santa Cruz off from the rest of the country, this will leave the Aymaras out of the picture and this province in the hands of the traditional ruling classes (oligarchs) and out of the reach of Evo Morales.

This is easier said than done, as Morales has a great sense of patriotism, historical roots due to his life as a "cocalero", the salt of the earth in Bolivian culture and heritage. Morales is the Andean Bolivar, in the eyes of his supporters.

On the other hand, according to Luis Quiroga, there are no rules, no precedents, nothing of this kind to govern a referendum of this type. If there is a unilateral vote just in Santa Cruz, then this could be deadly, for the reasons outlined above. If there is a national vote, no one knows yet what could occur. If there is nothing permitting such a referendum in the Bolivian Constitution, this is an illegal separatist movement, ergo civil war at least, if there is a "declaration of independence".

In fact, if there is no constitutional way of defending this referendum, then it cannot be possibly be accepted by the Organization of American States (OAS) meaning that any "independent Santa Cruz State" would not be recognized � except perhaps by the hawks in the US state department, after their idiocy in recognizing the 47 hour de facto government in Venezuela in April 2002.

All the ingredients for a continuation for the Battle of Bolivia are in place. Multinational and important national interests are threatened by the indigenous social movements. Their solution is a Constituent Assembly, but there are dark forces working against this constitutional compromise��in Santa Cruz and perhaps even more shadily in the presidential palace itself in La Paz, as well as in the US Embassy.

I make a call to all political parties and groupings in Bolivia to declare their stance regarding the Santa Cruz separatist movement.

This is not a referendum as there was in Venezuela or there are in Switzerland from time to time � this is a vulgar, self-interested separatist movement, probably financed by the CIA, with nefarious consequences for thousands of unsuspecting Bolivians.

There must be other patriots who believe in the heritage left them by Bolivar and Sucre, and who have the courage to stand up and be counted in the name of national and territorial sovereignty.

You must face up to this mortal danger for Bolivia. Who are you? And where are you? Are you being silenced by the mass media? Then write!

� Copyright 2005 by AxisofLogic.com

To read preceding articles in this series, go to Series on Bolivia. 

Also, you can read Carlos Herrera's other analyses on events in Latin America by going to: Articles by Carlos Herrera - 2005

You can contact Carlos Herrera at: carlos@axisoflogic.com