The effects of the road blocks set up by protesting indigenous people in Bolivia on February 17th, in the "gas war" are beginning to bite. The blockades have virtually cut the country in two, as lines of stranded trucks with rotting cargoes snaked through the Bolivian jungle Monday, fueling fears of food shortages in major cities. Goods from Bolivia�s agricultural heartland in the east are being prevented from reaching the highland capital of La Paz, and there a growing rumors of food shortages, which could results in panic buying in food outlets and supermarkets.

No meeting and hardly any money

The planned meeting between President Mesa and opposition leaders on Monday did not materialize, as Mesa did not turn up. The Bolivian Workers Confederation (COB) re-scheduled its 48 hour national stoppage to start on Tuesday in demand for the nationalization of all hydrocarbon reserves.

President Mesa warned that the government could run out of money in about two weeks and would not be able to pay salaries to state employees as the road blocks have tightened their grip on all business transactions and commerce. The question is now how long can the government holdout?

No backing down on either side

The opposition and its main leaders of Evo Morales, Jaime Quispe and Jaime Solares (COB) have repeatedly stated that they do not want to overthrow the government, and will go to elections on 2007, but they are not prepared to accept the government�s proposals for the new gas law of just 18% royalties, instead of 50% for the Bolivian people.

Thus, with some members of Congress selling out to bribes and multinational interests, the only alternative for the protesters is to keep up the pressure and hence the road blocks. Upon reflection, there is very little difference between what happened in the last days of ex-President Sanchez de Lozada�s mandate in October 2003, when he resigned and fled to Miami. This situation is worse and Mesa has not called out the troops arbitrarily to break the road blocks, due to the probability of deaths and more human rights violations as in October 2003. In that attack by the government, 78 protesters died at the hands of Sanchez de Lozada�s shock troops.

Sanchez de Lozada will eventually be brought to book for these murders and it looks as if President Mesa does not want to run that risk � at least not yet, until legislation on dismantling the road blocks is passed in Congress.

It�s also about wider issues

The gas protests are inextricably entwined with a battle by the poor Indian majority against what they see as centuries of oppression by the European descended elite.  They know all too well the attendant historical exclusion and racism to which they and their forebears have been subjected.  They are also committed to stop this abuse from being continued with their own children and their descendants by insisting on wholesale structural changes in Bolivia.

Other injustices which have to be overcome are the privatization drinking water and sewage services, and the chance of a free trade agreement between the Bolivian and US government, or the imposition of the FTAA.

The outlook for the coming days is extremely tense, especially with the threat of food shortages in the major cities and the general strike due to start on Tuesday March 15th. President Mesa has access to the mass media, but his appeals have fallen on deaf ears, except in the case of his own supporters.

Dismemberment of Bolivia � US imperial strategy

The separatist movement in Santa Cruz province is also having its interests prejudiced by the road blocks, as many agricultural exporters and distributors have had their cargoes stopped, losing millions of dollars each day.

Even is the gas saga has a "happy ending", the next challenge for Bolivia will be the threat to its sovereignty by the separatists in Santa Cruz, the country�s richest province. Oligarchs, oil multinationals and the US State Department are trying to split off this piece of Bolivia by implementing a referendum in the province, and not throughout the whole of Bolivia.

Such a strategy is similar to trying to split off Venezuela�s oil rich state of Zulia from the rest of the country. When this has even been mentioned in the press, President Chavez has addressed the issue head on, guaranteeing military action to defend national sovereignty, since Zulia is part of Venezuela and not the feudal lands of a few wealthy families. Similar examples would be seen if the rebellious southern Mexican state of Chiapas tried to declare itself independent, or if the FARC and the ELN in Colombia attempted to declare the half of the territory they control as independent from the government in Bogot�.